Kent's 9 Rules of Analysis [for Fire Protection Professionals]

In the 1940's, Sherman Kent, a Yale professor and father of American analytical intelligence, authored a book entitled, Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. In his book, written for intelligence analysts, Kent outlines nine rules of analysis. Though written for the intelligence community, these nine rules of analysis can be applied to what fire protection professionals do everyday.

As fire protection professionals we are constantly faced with a barrage of data and information.  This data and information must be analyzed and evaluated to specify and approve life safety features, design fire protection systems, promote and develop prevention programs, and more. How can we ensure that the right information is being analyzed and the best options are being presented? To be great at the art and craft of analyzing and presenting information, we should learn and apply Kent's nine rules of analysis.

9 Rules of Analysis

1. Focus on Policymaker Concerns. Who are the policymakers in your community? What is their primary concern? The "policymaker" can be the client, the commissioners, or other group or individual that will be making the final approval decision and releasing needed funds. Issues and requests will be better received if presented in a manner and time-frame that suits the affected policymaker.  

"Accommodate clients by producing assessments timed to their decision cycle and focused on their learning curve".

2. Avoidance of a Personal Policy Agenda. What is best for the policymaker (client,group, community)? This may directly conflict with the needs of the individual, the department, or the company. 

"Identify and evaluate alternatives...allow the client to recommend and choose."

3. Intellectual Rigor. Information and solutions should be "rigorously evaluated for validity".  

"Judgments are based on evaluated and organized data, substantive expertise, and sound, open-minded postulation of assumptions."

4. Conscious Effort to Avoid Analytic Biases. Review the data, information, and problem with an open mind. Don't get tunnel vision that tries to fit the problem into your 

"Resist the tendency to see what they expect to see in the 

5. Willingness to Consider Other Judgments. Argument and dissent should be encouraged, as long as, the dissenter's judgement is made clear and based on alternative assumptions or different interpretations of information. A good example of this is the model code development process. A group of individuals that gather, share their "judgments", to create the most useful and relevant code or standard. 

6. Systematic Use of Outside Experts. The more we know about new technology, new processes, new structure or building methods, the better we can serve those "policymakers" and our communities. This can be largely accomplished by building the right relationships with experts in other fields, that can provide and interpret the new information. 

"Take account of a wide range of outside opinions...cultivate working relations with outsiders..."

7. Collective Responsibility for Judgment. Collective responsibility is the idea that individuals who are part of of a group (the "collective") are responsible for the groups actions and occurrences by tolerating, ignoring, or harboring them, without being actively engaged in the decision. Being aware of this, fire protection professionals should always speak up, represent, and defend their analysis, to their clients best interest.

"Allow time for coordination and accommodate collective responsibility."

8. Effective Communication of Policy-Support Information and Judgments. A good method to use is The Pyramid Principle developed by Barabara Minto. This is a method of corporate communication that starts with the solution then presents recommendations, and supporting ideas.

"Shorter is usually better, with key points stated quickly... If the tradeoff is between adding length and allowing brevity to cause confusion, provide a carefully measured dose of detail."

9. Candid Admission of Mistakes. If you have made a mistake readily admit it and present solutions for corrections. Master your subject and trade-craft, study mistakes, learn by conducting a critical review of failures.

 "Admission and explanation of analytic errors are likely to increase credibility with policy clients."

These decades-old postulates can serve as a refreshing blueprint for the development, presentation, and analysis of information and solutions to problems. Define the "policymakers" primary concern. Seek intellectual rigor, and strive to never bring personal agenda or bias to the task. Seek advice and test other’s hypotheses. Take responsibility and credit as a group. Hold yourself to the highest standards of professionalism and excellence in your field.  Admit mistakes and be quick to respond to, and correct, them. 

The Guide for Fire Protection Solutions

McKinsey & Company is the most widely regarded and renowned management consulting firms. Their methods of analyzing problems, creating effective solutions, and managing the process is what distinguishes them as “the most influential private organization in America”.  The systems and processes that McKinsey uses for problem solving in the manufacturing, energy, transportation, healthcare, communications, and pharmaceutical industries, can also be applied, with great effectiveness, to the fire protection industry.

This free guide, The Consultative Approach to Fire Protection Problems, walks the reader step-by-step through the problem solving process. Through a series of short articles the reader will be able to practically apply this process to create fire protection solutions.

• Analyzing fire protection problems
• Creating a work plan
• Achieving solution buy-in
• Managing the implementation team

Download the FREE guide

Knowledge Management for the Fire Service (Part 6)

Knowledge encompasses more than just data and information. Knowledge is the beneficial application of  a mix of information, experience, and context. Of knowledge there are two types, uncodified and codified. Uncodified knowledge resides in the heads of individuals, this knowledge becomes codified when it is shared through discussions or documentation.

Knowledge management is the term used to describe the systematic process by which this knowledge can be collected, accessed, and utilized in a way that adds value to the organization.  Knowledge management is taking advantage of what is known to maximize an organization’s value, or a department’s value to the community.

The consulting firm of McKinsey & Company is known for its dedication to learning and the value placed on knowledge management.  The fire service can benefit from applying these knowledge management principles from the Firm.

Don’t re-invent the wheel. Somebody, somewhere, has most likely experienced the same problem that you are experiencing.  They have already done the mental exercise of thinking through the problem, and performed the hard task of creating a solution. For practically any problem there is an abundance of reports, documents, spreadsheets, presentations, or graphs that can assist in the solution implementation.  Search out these documents.  Additionally, there are people within our organizations who are experts at different things. They have different skills in the fire service - rescue, operations, tactics, prevention, command - and outside of the fire service that may be applicable to your problem.  Know your people, and utilize their strengths.

As various issues arise or occur, the solutions should be documented and made accessible. No doubt, many of these ‘problem-solution’ combinations are saved on multiple e-mail inboxes. A simple spreadsheet could be a good start in assembling this information.

Talk to your people, or review their resumes to see what other skills they have. As with the documentation, a simple spreadsheet of individual and skills can be created and searched when needed.

Develop a rapid response culture. When I started out in my public service career as a fire inspector, I was amazed at how easy it was to, “wow” people with my customer service. I didn’t do anything extra, all I did was return phone calls and e-mails, and follow-up on what I said I would. I thought this was normal human behavior.  I quickly learned, it was not.

It is very frustrating to be tasked with solving a problem when the people you need information from for the solution are  unresponsive. Implementing something similar to Mckinsey & Co.’s,  “24-hour response policy”  can quickly decrease the time and work it takes to reach a conclusion. Any inquiry, in person, by phone, or e-mail is required to receive a response within 24 hours.

Acquire external knowledge. Search out and use experts outside of your organization. As an AHJ or fire code official, you may not know every intricate detail of a specific fire alarm or suppression system.  However, those contractors that work with these day in and day out, are intimately familiar with their product. Use them. For pre-planning activities, involve the building managers, they know the structure and its processes better than anyone else. Maintain documentation on the information they provide, and add the individual to your database or spreadsheet of experts to consult.

Promote knowledge accumulation.  Knowledge management should be promoted from the top ranks all the way down. Incentivize rapid response and the support and development of others within the organization.  

At the completion of big projects or problems, bring the team together to summarize lessons learned, processes involved, and take aways for other operations. In the fire service we may utilize an AAR (after action review) to identify concerns and compile lessons learned after a fire incident.  When members return from conferences or training sessions, bring them together or put what they learned into a shared document, so the whole department can benefit from their experience.  When new buildings or new systems are introduced to the community, bring the building management, system contractors, and fire department personnel together to learn about the structure or system.  Maintain and distribute any related documentation.

This is the final post in the, McKinsey Method for Fire Protection Solutions, series. The goal of this series was to promote a consultative approach to solving fire protection problems.  In all the steps, and lessons learned, knowledge management plays a critical role. Knowledge management, “knowing what”and “knowing who”, is an essential skill for reaching effective and efficient solutions.

Part 1 - Solve Fire Protection Problems Like a Management Consultant

Part 2 - How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems

Part 3 - Six Presentation Strategies for Achieving Buy-In

Part 4 - Managing the Implementation Team

Part 5 - Creating a Work Plan

Part 6 - Knowledge Management for the Fire Service

Creating a Work Plan (Part 5)

This is Part 5 of a 6 part series collectively titled, McKinsey Method for Fire Protection Solutions. As you read keep in mind that these systems and processes can be applied to  fire protection organization and leadership, and to physical fire protection systems and components.

Read Part 1 - Solve Fire Protection Problems Like a Management Consultant

Read Part 2 - How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems

Read Part 3 - Six Presentation Strategies for Achieving Buy-In

Read Part 4 - Managing the Implementation Team

If it can’t be put on paper, then it lacks clarity. In Part 2 of this series, How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems,  a  four part process for analyzing problems was outlined. The work plan is the tool used to define and specify the desired outcomes of the identified problem analysis. The work plan lists all the issues that were framed in initial hypothesis. The work plan then provides a pathway to address these issues.  For each issue the work plan chart will show:

• Statement of the issue or hypothesis.
• Prioritized list of analysis to be completed to prove/disprove hypothesis.
• Data and sources needed to perform the analysis.
• Description of the end product of the analysis (or item produced to show analysis data).
• Team member responsible for the end product.
• Due date for the end product

Write down the hypothesis to be analyzed.  Under this list all issues or sub-issues that need to be addressed.  Across from each issue, describe the analysis that will need to be performed. In the next column list the data and data sources that will be needed to conduct a thorough analysis.  Next, describe the end product. What will need to be produced to compile the data and demonstrate the validity of the analysis?  Assign each of these issues and analyses to a team member, and give them a deadline for the final product.

We have created a spreadsheet for you to utilize. Click the image to access.

Work Plan Spreadsheet

Managing the Implementation Team (Part 4)

This is Part 4 of a 6 part series collectively titled, McKinsey Method for Fire Protection Solutions. As you read keep in mind that these systems and processes can be applied to  fire protection organization and leadership, and to physical fire protection systems and components.

Read Part 1 - Solve Fire Protection Problems Like a Management Consultant

Read Part 2 - How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems

Read Part 3 - Six Presentation Strategies for Achieving Buy-In

After a problem has been analyzed and a solution has been presented and accepted, the work of implementation begins. Implementing the problem solution requires the effective management of three components:

1. The Team.
2. The Client.
3. The Individual.

The Team.

These are the people that you will be working together with to implement the problem solution. The manager has three responsibilities related to the team, he must assemble the right team members, he must keep them motivated to complete the task, and he must ensure their continued professional development.

Effective team management starts with recruiting, or assembling, the right people. To acquire the best talent for the team, the manager should start with a structured plan.  The plan should let the manager easily see what type of personality would fit best, what types of skills are needed, and what specific knowledge may be required. Using the plan, the manager can select those individuals that bring the strengths necessary to the project.  A team that is has all the same strengths and weaknesses will fail.  When assembling the team, maintaining the right mix or knowledge, skills, and abilities is critical.

McKinsey keeps its people motivated by spending time together and providing adequate rewards.  Motivation can be maintained by creating a familiar atmosphere to work in.  Create a workplace that people want to come to, a place where they feel like they contribute and are a part of something bigger.  Planned team events, bonding outings, can be effective also. The most effective of these are the more “impromptu” events that are put together by someone other than the “boss” or manager.  Provide rewards, above and beyond compensation, for the team members.  Rewards can include things like dinners and lunches paid for by the organization, and additional days, weekends, or time off. When the team members feel that the organization has taken notice of their work, appreciates their contribution, and acknowledges the existence of their personal and family life, they will be motivated to continue giving their best to the solution implementation team.

Team members want the organization to contribute to their professional development.  The effective team manager can accomplish this by setting clear expectations and providing regular and consistent evaluations. Clarity of expectations ensures that all the team members know what they are working for and how their work product and performance will be evaluated. This allows them to focus on areas of their profession that should be developed in order to meet and exceed the expectation.  Regular and consistent evaluations by the manager, let the team member know that he is on the right track, and his performance is meeting the expectation. At least, six month, evaluations are recommended.  This allows the manager to see what the employee has accomplished so far, and what professional goals and development benchmarks have been set for the next six months.

The Client.

This is who you work for. In the private sector this is the company or organization that is paying for the services. In the public sector, this is the community, municipality, and stakeholders.

Effective management of the client requires that they be informed, involved, and inspired. Communication is key. The client should always be “in the loop” and never be surprised by any changes or developments in the planned solution. The client wants to feel like they are involved and contributing to this project.  Let them be involved. Invite them to the meetings, assign them tasks that need to be done that they can do.  Utilize them as part of your team.  They need to stay inspired. The manager must continue to sell the solution throughout its implementation, so that the client stays focused on their desired outcome and keeps the big picture at the forefront of his mind.

The Individual.

Yourself. Individuals have a hard time providing a good work product when they are out of balance with their personal life. The manager cannot effectively manage the team, if his personal life feels like it is being mismanaged.

Often individuals search for work/life balance, however, the true ‘sweet spot’ is in the seamless integration and intertwining of work and life. A situation where the two exist and flow together. This work/life flow can be achieved through mentors, supporting one another, sharing the load, and effective time management. Maintaining work/life flow and avoiding “burn out” requires the individual to stay focused on the purpose, vision, and goals of the task at hand.

Six Presentation Strategies for Achieving Buy-In (Part 3)

This is Part 3 of a 6 part series collectively titled, McKinsey Method for Fire Protection Solutions. As you read keep in mind that these systems and processes can be applied to  fire protection organization and leadership, and to physical fire protection systems and components.

Read Part 1 - Solve Fire Protection Problems Like a Management Consultant

Read Part 2 - How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems

Even more challenging than creating a problem solution, is communicating that solution and having it accepted for implementation.  The solution presentation has to be structured in such a way that it can be communicated clearly and concisely.  The problem solution must be presented so that it is understood, and generates buy-in from necessary stakeholders and decision makers. Effective communication skills are key to this process.  

Management consultants are the experts in communicating solutions and achieving buy-in.  These skills are critical to their success. Studying and applying the strategies of the firms can enable fire service professionals to effectively communicate solutions to fire protection problems, or gain buy-in from community stakeholders for fire department initiatives.

To effectively present strategies that achieve buy-in, there are 6 steps that should be followed:

1. Pre-wire the presentation.
2. Know your audience.
3. Outline and structure the presentation.
4. Start with the conclusion.
5. Make wise use of visual aids.
6. Document sources.

Pre-wire the presentation.  Management consulting firm, McKinsey & Co. coined the term pre-wiring.  This is the process of taking your audience through the solutions before engaging in a formal presentation.  Pre-wiring the audience will help to avoid any surprises or unknown factors. The problem solution and recommendations should be sent out to the key decision-makers and stakeholders. From the comments and feedback a firm foundations for a successful presentation can be established. This pre-wiring process allows the presenter to:

• Address major objections prior to the presentation
• Build consensus in support of the solution
• Understand audience mindset
• Gauge reality and feasibility of findings

Know your audience. Any presentation should be custom tailored for the individuals that buy-in must be achieved from. The more that can be known about the audience the greater the chances of success. It is important to know the background, preferences, and communication style of the audience.

Different personalities require different presentation methods.  Does the audience prefer formal communication and presentations, or is a more informal approach acceptable? Is a large presentation in a boardroom required, or is a more intimate discussion most appropriate? Will the audience react better to a text based presentation, or an audio visual  show? Is a lecture based, question and answer, or hands-on format the best option?

Outline and structure the presentation. Any presentation should be structured in logical, clear, and easy-to-follow steps. The problem-solving framework used to reach the hypothesis (see the post, How to Analyze Fire Protection Problems) creates a natural outline for solution presentation. The exhibits used to establish the problem solutions can be compiled and plugged into place in the presentation.

Start with the conclusion.  State the problem solution and benefits in the first slide. Each point of the solution and benefits will make up a section of the presentation.  This method is referred to as inductive reasoning, and can be stated as, “We believe X because of A, B, and C.”

Make wise use of visual aids. There is seemingly no limitation to what can constitute a visual aid. These can  include charts and graphs, scaled models, product samples, and the list could go on.  When creating the presentation all options should be considered. Utilize the visual aid that will have the most impact on the decision-maker. When referencing charts or graphs in a presentation, only one message per chart should be conveyed, and the chart should be easy to read or have the pertinent information highlighted.

Document sources. Documenting all sources of data and information will provide direction for answering questions that may arise.  The referenced documents can serve as an authority outside of just the presenter.  Keeping track of the references and sources can prove useful for future projects.

Applying these six steps to any presentation will go a long way in ensuring successful buy-in.  No matter what process or presentation methods are utilized there is never any substitute for preparation.  The presenter must know the material and fully grasp the concept to be presented. Practicing the presentation multiple times will add to the natural flow of information.  Individuals who are regularly tasked with presenting ideas and solutions should continuously work and study the craft of communication.

Related posts:

• Learn to SCORRE
• 6 Ways to Get People to Your Presentation
• Be a Presentation God
• 3 Skills to Unlearn for More Powerful Presentations

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